TTIP/TAFTA is a true game changer for both the EU and US in terms of economic value, especially in a time of crisis for the EU. To find out exactly what content people consumed and analyze policy trends, we mined the web (big data). At the moment TTIP/TAFTA is not being met without issues – as we all know in Brussels – #NSAGate, data privacy and IP are slowing down negotiations (we’re looking at you France), and this is generally what the data had to say as well.
Over view: 5,505 mentions of TTIP/TAFTA in the last 100 days – too large of number for business and institutions to ignore. In short you need to join the conversation if you have something to say about it ASAP (indecision is a decision).
The biggest uptick – a total of 300 mentions – came when Obama spoke at the G-8 summit in Ireland on June 17th when trade talks began. The key theme at this time was the potential boost in the economy. The official press release is here.
“The London-based Centre for Economic Policy Research estimates a pact – to be known as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership – could boost the EU economy by 119 billion euros (101.2 billion pounds) a year, and the U.S. economy by 95 billion euros.However, a report commissioned by Germany’s non-profit Bertelsmann Foundation and published on Monday, said the United States may benefit more than Europe. A deal could increase GDP per capita in the United States by 13 percent over the long term but by only 5 percent on average for the European Union, the study found.”
Given that there is conflicting information we wanted to see whose idea and data wins out – the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) or Bertelsmann Foundation (BF)? To do this we looked to see which study was referenced most. The chart below shows the mentions of each organization within the TTIP/TAFTA conversation over the last 100 days. The Center for Economic Policy Research is in orange and the Bertelsmann Foundation is in green.
In total both studies were cited almost the same amount:
- Centre for Economic Policy Research: 80 Mentions
- Bertelsmann Foundation: 83 mentions
- Both organizations were mentioned together 53 Times.
More recently though the trend seems to show that the Economic Policy Research is being cited most in the last 30 days, including a large uptick on July 8th. This is mainly due to the market share of the sources being located more in the US and the US wanting to get a deal done faster than the more hesitant Europeans. Keep in mind the CEP claims larger benefits of TAFTA/TTIP than the BF study.
Where are the mentions?
- The US had 2,743 mentions (49% overall)
- All of Europe combined total was 1,986 (36% overall)
Of the topics ACTA is still being talked about with, IP and Data Protection top the list. This is not surprising given France’s reluctance to be agreeable because of the former and #prism, so below are those themes plotted.
The top stories on Twitter are in the table below. It’s not surprising that the White House is number one, but where are the EU institutions and media on this?
|Top Stories||Tweets||Retweets||All Tweets||Impressions|
Everybody knows the battle for hearts and minds of people starts with a good acronym so I broke down the market share between TTIP (165) and TAFTA (2197):
I may add more in the coming days but those are a few simple bits of info for now. Nonetheless if you want to join the conversation on Twitter the top hashtags are below.